Water FractalTier 2
at Outpost Ghent | Regional
decks
3
(6.4% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
18
8-8-2
overall winrate
50.0%
ELO-adjusted winrate
50.2%
avg ELO +0.1 per match
expected value
48.1%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
48.0%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill · average
mean ELO 1234
· median 1276
· range 1135–1291
(3 pilots with an ELO rating)
1028
Q1 1164
Q3 1365
1520
0% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
33% in the bottom.
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fire Crux Mage | 10.6% | 4 | 1-3-0 | 25.0% | 37.5% | 37.4% | -8.1 |
| Fire Firebloom Burn | 8.5% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 40.3% | -15.6 |
| Water Aetherwing | 8.5% | 2 | 2-0-0 | 100.0% | 66.7% | 63.2% | +12.7 |
| Wind Allies | 8.5% | 3 | 1-1-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 47.7% | -1.7 |
| Wind Seiryuu | 6.4% | 2 | 0-2-0 | 0.0% | 33.3% | 38.2% | -11.4 |
| Fire Crux Lorraine | 4.3% | 1 | 0-0-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 53.1% | +4.9 |
| Fire Slimes | 4.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Suited | 4.3% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 39.5% | -16.7 |
| Fire Suzaku | 4.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Umbra Guardian | 4.3% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 61.3% | +18.0 |
| Fire Aetherwing | 2.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Aggro | 2.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Arcane | 2.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Umbra Guardian | 2.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Slimes | 2.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Allies | 2.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Astra Ranger | 2.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Genbu | 2.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Umbra Ciel | 2.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Arcane | 2.1% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 57.6% | +12.2 |
| Wind Astra Cleric | 2.1% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 59.9% | +15.9 |
| Wind Crux Lorraine | 2.1% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 60.7% | +17.2 |
| Wind Kongming | 2.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 2.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Wakeup Combo | 2.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
